Early Season Top 10: The NBA's Best Ranked from MVPs to Championship Centerpieces
- Brennan Valladares
- Dec 16, 2023
- 7 min read
We are a third of the way through the 2023-24 season and there has not been a shortage of superstar play. While many familiar faces are still performing at an MVP level or better, other players are bursting onto the scene. The benefit of having the In-Season Tournament was that we got to see all of the best play at their best. So, after the Lakers claimed the first NBA Cup, I have decided to list the 10 best players 25 games into the season.
The players on this list are, in my eyes, all potential MVP candidates. The deciding factor for where a player ranks in respect to another is whether I believe they are a championship centerpiece. So while there are 10 MVP-level players, only a few have been deemed as the guy on a championship team.
Criteria/Definitions:
Championship Centerpiece: The best playmaker(s) in the league. These individuals elevate their team on offense, defense, or both.
Estimated Plus Minus (EPM): an all-in-one player metric that estimates a player's contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions for individual seasons (stat from dunksandthrees).
MVP: To be an MVP-level player, the individual's stats are not enough. The stats and the player have to impact winning positively.
Playmaker: On offense, this player combines elite-level scoring with passing to level up his team's offensive attack. On defense, this player anchors his team's protection scheme with rebounding and defensive versatility.
Win Shares (WS): an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player (stat from basketball-reference).
Nikola Jokić | Denver Nuggets | Championship Centerpiece
The best playmaker in the world right now is Nikola Jokić. After a couple of seasons of The Joker and Company, we finally got to see what a healthy Denver Nuggets squad looks like with number 15 in the middle. The result? An NBA Championship. Jokić's top-tier/hyper-efficient scoring and otherworldly passing IQ and accuracy make him an offensive nightmare. No other player in the league right now impacts the game more consistently than Jokić (he ranks in the 100th percentile for on/off per cleaning the glass) and Denver is well-positioned to repeat assuming the team stays healthy.
Joel Embiid | Philadephia 76ers | Championship Centerpiece
The league's leading scorer and one of the most dominant players in all of basketball, Joel Embiid is a force on both ends of the floor. Not only has he continued to excel at putting the ball into the hoop, but the new Sixers offense has opened up his passing game. While still not on the level of Jokić, the movement and spacing around Embiid keep the defense occupied while he cooks his matchup.
Defensively, the star center packs almost two shots a night and holds opponents to 52% at the rim (80th percentile). When he is on, few players can match his playmaking ability on both sides of the ball. Embiid is the anchor of a top-ten defense (7th in DEFRTG) and offense (2nd in OFFRTG) and could rise to the top of this list come year's end.
Luka Dončić | Dallas Mavericks | Championship Centerpiece
A generational scorer and passer, Dončić possesses all the tools of an all-time offensive player. Trailing only Joel Embiid in scoring, Luka dictates the flow of any game with either his scoring or assisting. Play him straight-up, and he'll torch you for 40. Send a double and he'll whip it over the defense to a wide-open shooter in the corner. On the nights when everything is going, it'll be a 40-point triple-double.
Dončić has already had the kitchen sink thrown at him in terms of defensive schemes, and yet he has still had tremendous individual success in the regular season and playoffs. A true heliocentric player, Luka himself is a walking 118 offensive rating, and he currently has the Mavericks ranked fifth in that category across the league.
The question with Luka is will his ball-dominant style of play win an NBA Championship? Or will he need to diversify his game to take over the top spot on this list?
Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | Championship Centerpiece
Modern-day Shaq is an appropriate comparison for Giannis, who is the most physically dominant player in the association. Antetokounmpo combines grace and force to crush anyone who dares stand in his path to the basket. He currently leads the league in points in the paint and ranks in the 97th percentile in Rim FG%. Antetokounmpo has unique gravity on his rolls to the basket, which opens up opportunities for him as a short roll passer or for Damian Lillard to find the open man. Milwaukee ranks eighth in corner three-point attempts and shoots the second-highest mark on these shots.
While the Bucks' defensive struggles continue, they are 7 points better per 100 possessions with Giannis on the floor, per cleaning the glass. He is still an elite defensive rebounder and one of the best help-side defenders in the NBA. Giannis' dominance on both sides of the ball makes him one of three players in contention for this list to be a playmaker offensively and defensively (Embiid is already listed).
Steph Curry | Golden State Warriors | Championship Centerpiece
It's year 15 for Steph and he is still the best shooter on the planet. Not only is Curry making the most threes per game but he is also attempting the most. The Bay Area guard's high volume tied with high efficiency continues to warp defenses to the Warriors' advantage. While the players listed before Curry mainly draw defenders' attention with the ball in their hands, Curry is arguably more dangerous moving without the ball. He ranks second in off-ball screen possessions (behind teammate Klay Thompson) and ranks in the 93rd percentile in points per those possessions. This off-ball "gravity" that Curry creates makes him one of the most threatening offensive players in the league.
LeBron James | Los Angeles Lakers | Championship Centerpiece
21 years in the league and LeBron's impact on his team's success is still remarkable. He ranks fifth in estimated plus-minus and 11th in win shares as the oldest player in the NBA. With this compounding mileage on James' body, his assertiveness offensively has gone down (second-lowest usage rate and lowest amount of field goals attempted of his career), but he continues to evolve in new ways. For instance, his six seasons in Los Angeles have been the highest three-point attempt rate of his career accompanied by this year (as of now) being the second-best he has shot from distance. James has also enjoyed playing more of the four alongside Anthony Davis and his role as the backline defender for the Lakers has been huge (108.5 DEFRTG in their most used lineup).
And while there is a constantly evolving LeBron as he continues to shatter the minutes record, some things have remained the same. For example, he ranks in the 88th percentile on his 71.7% on above-average rim field goal attempts and he is still the quarterback for a title contender. Time seems irrelevant to LeBron in terms of his athletic capabilities, but it has aged his basketball skills like fine wine.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | MVP
Gilgeous-Alexander is in the midst of his second straight year of averaging 30+ points per contest and has the highest EPM of any player on this list. His explosive scoring ability gives teams no choice but to double him once he crosses halfcourt, providing his teammates with gaps to exploit. He is the only guard in the league within the top ten in points in the paint, thanks to his driving (first in drives and points on drives) and midrange mastery. SGA has one of the most dominant and efficient scoring repertoires in the league and still has room to grow.
While Gilgeous-Alexander does rank first in EPM and second in WS, his passing and defense are still developing (I am aware that he leads the league in steals, but let's not conflate box score stats with on-ball defense). As I outlined in the opening of this piece, a championship centerpiece is one of the best playmakers in the league. In my opinion, even with Gilgeous-Alexander's insane statistics, can he impact the game beyond scoring on the level of the six aforementioned players? His passing trails some of the best offensive players in the league, and his defense is well below that of Giannis and Embiid. To move up this list, SGA will have to demonstrate the ability to carry his heavy offensive load while elevating his teammates in the postseason.
Devin Booker | Phoenix Suns | MVP
Devin Booker took advantage of playing alongside Chris Paul for three years. While the Sun's guard showed flashes of his passing before Paul arrived, he seems light years ahead of where he was just last year. Booker is one of the most well-rounded scorers in the league, and he is now blossoming into one of the premier playmakers in the NBA. He is averaging a career-high in both points and assists while maintaining his positive efficiency (85th percentile for true shooting). Out of the four MVP-ranked players on this list, Booker is clearly the strongest playmaker and could leap into the championship centerpiece role by the end of the season.
Kevin Durant | Phoenix Suns | MVP
Some things are just inevitable, and in the basketball universe, that thing is Kevin Durant being one of the best scorers. Durant's combination of size and skill continues to be game-breaking even as a 35-year-old. The Slim Reaper ranks among the top five for scoring, and he is doing so on absurd shooting numbers. Most notably, Durant is nailing 48.4% of his threes, which is third among all players. The unalterable shotmaking KD possesses makes him one of the most dangerous offensive players in the entire league. While he does most of his damage from the midrange (second in midrange field goal attempts per game), any shot on the floor in any manner is most likely a bucket (above the 86th percentile in rim% and ft%).
An all-time scorer, Durant continues to be nearly unguardable, opening up the floor for his teammates. He has the second-highest assist percentage of his career, so the answers for how to slow down KD with Booker and Beal are becoming scarce.
Kawhi Leonard | Los Angeles Clippers | MVP
Kawhi Leonard is yet to miss a game this year, and he has been dominant over the last 14 games for the Clippers. While his per-game averages will not reflect his recent play, Leonard has averaged nearly 26 points on 50/40/90 shooting splits. It has been a process of acclimating to James Harden's style of play, but Leonard has been excellent off the catch and bounce. He is scorching from behind the arc this season (42.3%) and is among the league leaders in pull-up shooting, averaging seven points on these shots.
While injuries have plagued his career, when Kawhi is healthy there are few better two-way players in the NBA. He is among the league leaders in steals per game (1.5) and the Clippers are 11.9 points better per 100 possessions on defense with Leonard on the floor. If Kawhi can stay healthy for the majority of the regular season and the entire playoffs, we could easily see the return of The Klaw in the NBA Finals.
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