Hogwarts Isn't The Only Place with Magic: Orlando and the Era of Big-and-Skilled

The young NBA season has been full of surprises, from Houston being competitive to Chet Holmgren unlocking Oklahoma City. However, none might be as surprising as the Orlando Magic sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference. Currently riding a seven-game winning streak, the Magic have notable wins this year against Denver, Boston, Indiana, and Milwaukee. Their 12-5 start to the season has been in large part due to their stonewall defense. The Magic's size, skill, and athleticism present offensive conundrums for opponents but also raise questions for their own attack. Here is how Orlando is budding into one of the premier defenses in the association, and how they can grow offensively.

Micro to Macro

Across the NBA, teams are transitioning from an era of "small-ball" to "big-and-skilled". A reason for this trend is that NBA prospects are becoming more and more skilled with each draft class. The most sought-after draftees nowadays are those players who possess freakish size in combination with unique guard-like traits (Victor Wembanyama '23, Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren '22, and Cade Cunningham '21). Two of the advantages of downsizing were the ability to maximize offensive spacing and defensive switchability. But say, for instance, you replaced Clint Capela with Chet Holmgren on the 2018 Houston Rockets. Now, you maintain elite rim protection while staying spaced out. By constructing a roster with size and versatility on both ends of the floor, you get the benefits of both "small-ball" offense with traditional size for defense. The Magic are no stranger to this trend and have invested draft capital into 6'10" Franz Wagner, 6'10" Paolo Banchero, and 6'7" Anthony Black over the last three years.

All three of these players bring size to their positions but also possess skills normally attributed to smaller guards. Wagner is a large playmaker who puts consistent pressure on the rim (92nd percentile in drives). Banchero is a physical three-level scorer who also attacks the basket (90th percentile in drives scoring 6.3 drive points per game), and Anthony Black is a raw playmaker who has unique defensive tools at the guard position (ranks in the 53rd and 78th percentile for shots defended in the restricted area and FG% among guards). Size and skill connect all three of these players, but most importantly their defensive capabilities have vaulted Orlando into one of the most elite defenses in the league.

From One 6'10" to Another

The average height of the Magic's starting five is 6'8". Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black fill the guard positions and the front court boasts three players over 6'10" in Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Goga Bitadze. All of this size outmatches most of Orlando's opponents and currently has the Magic ranked third in Defensive Rating at 107. A key benefit of having five players with elite positional size is that the space for the offense to operate is constricted. The Magic give up the 10th least amount of points in the paint and restrict opponents to the sixth least amount of three-point attempts. Goga Bitadze has been the driver of this elite paint defense, ranking within the top 30 for shots defended at the rim and the 76th percentile for opponent efficiency near the basket. When the Magic are put into rotation, Suggs and Black funnel ball-handlers into a rotating Banchero or Wagner. The Magic's size takes away the advantages of getting to the basket because of who is rotating down and who is covering for the help. Kickout opportunities are intercepted or contested by the length of the Magic's defenders, and with limited options offensively, Orlando's opponents are committing a league-leading 17.2 turnovers a night.

Size and athleticism have turned this young Magic team into an elite defense. Space created by the three-point line is chewed up by Orlando's length, and opponents have few tools to puncture this defense. But while the benefits of being large have aided the Magic defensively, there are still looming questions about their offensive ceiling.

Matching up Size with Skill

Orlando's investment in positional size seems to limit their offensive potential. The starting five for the Magic of Black, Suggs, Wagner, Banchero, and Bitadze have logged the 12th most minutes among all lineups in the NBA, and have an offensive rating of 106.9 (about five points worse than the league average of 112). As I talked about in my blog about positional fluidity, having personnel that can service the duties of the five positions at any given moment maximizes "positionless" basketball. For the Magic, they have players that fulfill the roles of scoring, defending, and rebounding but lack shooting and creation/playmaking. They shoot the third worst percentage on threes (34%) on the third least amount (30 per game). Just as the Magic shrink the floor against their opponents, Orlando's ineffective shooting allows defenses to treat them similarly. Poor shooting paired with maturing on-ball creators will not produce an efficient offense. In this case, Wagner and Banchero have been assigned with creation duties but are still figuring it out early into their professional careers

Both players prefer to handle the ball and get downhill (near the top of the league in pick-and-roll possessions and drives) and both seem unsure of how to play with each other. For the season, Franz Wagner is shooting 29% from three on five attempts, while Paolo Banchero is converting on 43.6% of his 3.2 threes. While the raw numbers show that Banchero is shooting well from three, he is hesitant to shoot off the catch. At only 1.6 attempts (on 46% efficiency), Banchero prefers to put the ball on the deck and attack a closeout rather than take an open three. Wagner, on the other hand, has been struggling all year off the catch, scoring 31.9% of his 2.8 attempts from distance.

With both players wanting to be the initiator and lacking the desire or ability to shoot off the catch (as of now for Wagner), it creates a redundancy within their play. Eventually one of them will have to let the other be the driver when they share the floor, and I believe Wagner should take the wheel. Wagner is more efficient out of the pick-and-roll (.85 points per possession), is a better pull-up shooter from the midrange, and converts at a higher rate on his drives when compared to Banchero. While Paolo averages more assists (4.6) and has a higher assist percentage (21.7%), I believe that Orlando could maximize his scoring and playmaking ability in pick-and-pop situations with Franz. Banchero has the percentages (50% on wide-open threes) to warrant more attempts from deep, and if he utilized that shot more, the floor could open up more for both him and Wagner. Teams would be reluctant to switch the matchup because both players are 6'10", and would have to decide between denying the drive or conceiting an open three.

Orlando's future will be predicated on three things: (1) how will the two stars play with each other, (2) will Paolo and Franz continue being/get back to being efficient on their three-pointers, and (3) will the rest of the team make shots. At the end of the day, no matter how much attention Banchero and Wagner generate, it will never be punishable if their teammates continue to draw iron on their shots. The defense is elite because of their size and the team hopes that eventually, the shooting will follow along. If not, the Magic may have to move players around to create an environment that will allow both Paolo and Franz to dominate the paint and make plays for shooters. For now, the Orlando Magic will at least continue to reign terror on opposing offenses.