Josh Giddey Just Had a Career Month. How Real Was It?

The 6-foot-8 Aussie point guard has been on a tear after the All-Star break, but how sustainable is it? And what does it mean for the Bulls’ future?

Josh Giddey has always been a unique player.

Standing at 6-foot-8, Giddey possesses elite passing vision and a decent enough handle, which blend well together after he clears the boards and runs the break. However, his inconsistent jump shot, lack of on-ball creation, and defensive shortcomings made him stick out like a sore thumb last season in Oklahoma City. So, Sam Presti and Thunder brass shipped Giddey off to Chicago for Alex Caruso in a deal that, at the time, seemed to flaunt Presti’s savviness (the Bulls couldn’t get a single pick from OKC!?).

As the Thunder loaded up on talent, the Bulls seemed stuck in no man’s land with no road map. But even the aimless seem to find their way, and Giddey’s recent play appears to be tracing out a course correction.

Since the All-Star break, the 22-year-old Melbourne native has been piecing together the best stretch of his career on all fronts. The jump shot has been cash, the assist numbers are off the charts, and even more important is that the Bulls have won 12 of their 21 games since Feb. 20.

There is no question about Giddey’s impact on the Bulls’ recent success. The operative word in that sentence is recent, though, because as impressive as this run has been, the question remains “Is this really who Josh Giddey is?”

Vanilla Magic

Basketball reference is a great site for finding statistics on players from any era. It might play a larger role in providing the general public with nicknames of their favorite players.

For Giddey, or anybody really, drawing comparisons to the Magic Johnson would be the peak of their career. And in this case, “Vanilla Magic” is fitting for the engine of one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. While the Bulls as a team aren’t cashing in frequently on transition opportunities, their efficiency jumps up when Giddey is on the floor.

Without Giddey (Cleaning the Glass)

With Giddey (Cleaning the Glass)

Not only is Giddey driving the fast break, but he’s also the one who secures the defensive rebound to start it. Among “guards” (loosely used in this instance), Giddey ranks fifth in defensive rebounds per game with six. His ability to grab and go has unlocked Chicago’s open-floor game, where he is usually setting up his teammates.

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When looking at Giddey’s transition possessions without factoring in his assists, it’s pretty lackluster. But his passing is what has likened him to Magic. Per Synergy Sports, Giddey’s facilitation is what takes him from an average (35th percentile) transition player to one of the best in the game (79th percentile). But pure playmaking guards have had to find ways to pressure the defense to open opportunities for others, and Giddey’s downhill attacking has done just that.

Before Feb. 20, Giddey was reluctant to finish his drives. Now that he has been empowered to be more forceful, not only is he attacking more, but he’s shooting more. His drives per game are at a career high 15.4 and his pass percentage on these plays has gone from 51.4% to 44.2%.  His approach to these drives isn’t pretty. Unlike his former OKC teammate Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Giddey opts for the barreling technique, putting his head down and crashing into retreating opponents.

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His drive field-goal attempts have gone up from 3.1 to 5.9 during this stretch, and his frequency to the free-throw line has more than doubled. With a willingness to attack defenses and the ability to finish at or near the basket, teams no longer can sit on his passes. This diversification of his plan of attack has Giddey averaging the most assists he has ever over the span of 16 games with 9.1. And while most of his damage is done with him dictating the final outcome, his recent success from behind the arc could dramatically shift the trajectory of his career and the Bulls.

Is This Really Josh Giddey?

This is the foundation of this article, is it not? To examine whether this version of Giddey – the one averaging a near 21-point triple-double over the last month – is who the Bulls will have for the foreseeable future.

The first thing to get out of the way is that it is highly unlikely that Giddey will continue to shoot 47% from downtown. In fact, he’ll probably regress to the 35% he was at before this breakout, even with some recalibration of his mechanics. But even then, we’re talking about a guy who is a low-volume shooter anyway, so maybe that’s not the area to focus on.

Giddey is at his best when he is attacking downhill, whether that be in transition or out of a pick-and-roll. If he is even just a respectable threat from deep, all he needs is for the defense to extend a little too much for him to move towards the basket. Now, while the painted area is where he gets most of his points from (48.3%), this isn’t Giannis Antetokounmpo or prime LeBron James driving to the cup. Instead, this is a 6-foot-8 guard that lacks athletic pop and often pulls up short of the basket. Even more concerning is that Giddey doesn’t have the handle to carve his way into the paint against elite defenses.

So, what does this all mean? Here is a player who is gifted as a passer, has the size of the prototypical primary, and yet there are still gaps that need to be filled to bring the whole thing together. But maybe those gaps aren’t as noticeable when you zoom out and take in all that Giddey has to offer.

Chicago is thriving because Giddey has provided it with an identity of what it could be from here on out. A team that thrives in the open court, centered around a young talent that had shown flashes here and there but never really put it all together. What if he does, though? What if the shot becomes reliable? What if he continues to grow at getting to the basket and creating from his rim pressure? What if Josh Giddey becomes the player the OKC Thunder thought he could be when they selected him with the sixth overall pick in 2022? A dynamic playmaker who can utilize his size to create advantages for himself and others. That’s who OKC drafted, and that’s who Chicago is hoping will come through.

Maybe this version of Giddey isn't who he will be for his career. If anything, the past month shows that development isn't linear, and that the former Thunder turned Bull still has room to grow. Shocking, that at only 22 (!), the impression we are left with is that this isn't the final version of what has been a great 16 games for Josh Giddey.