The Warriors Are Old, but not in The Way You Think: How Basketball Has "Returned" Back to The Bigs
- Brennan Valladares
- Dec 22, 2023
- 7 min read
Once, winning championships meant playing small. Now, size aligns with the skill demanded by the modern game.
In Round One of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, the Golden State Warriors went the distance with the up-and-coming Sacramento Kings in a fast-paced, heavy-weight battle. Both teams relied on a motion-style offense with tons of shooting surrounding their core pieces. From Klay Thompson to Keegan Murray, this matchup was like the Spiderman meme with both teams running similar actions with their bigs (Draymond Green and Domantas Sabonis) to open up cuts and three-point opportunities.
The Warriors would win in Sacramento thanks to a 50-point outing from all-world talent Stephen Curry and earned a second-round date with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers had snuck into the playoffs by way of the Play-In and handled the Memphis Grizzlies in six games due to their elite defense and arguably the most impactful defender in Antony Davis. When they met up with the Warriors in Round Two, the Lakers played everything above the three-point line and dared cutters to challenge Davis at the rim. With little access beyond the arc and Davis mucking up the Warriors' motion, Golden State's prime pace and space offense was halted, sending them home in six games.
The Lakers dominated the Warriors because of their size. Davis in particular demonstrated that size and length can eat up the space created by shooting and movement. Obviously, there is only one Anthony Davis, but there was a lesson to be learned from his performance: size will always reign supreme in basketball so long as it is complemented by skill.
The Small Ball Era, c. 2015-2019
During the 2014-15 season, the Golden State Warriors won 67 games on their way to their first championship since 1975. This 16-game jump from the previous season was because of the revolutionary play of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Under head coach
Steve Kerr, a new offensive scheme was implemented that emphasized faster play, ball and player movement, and more threes. With Curry and Green, the Warriors were able to downsize the personnel on the court without losing an advantage offensively or defensively.
Warriors Offensive Rankings in 2015:
First in Pace
Fourth in 3PA
First in 3P%
Second in AST%
Curry's off-ball movement and shooting expertise (43% on 10 threes a night) were complemented by Green's passing and screen setting. Overall, these two players elevated the play of the Warriors with their synergistic playstyles. Curry normally would draw two in the high screen and roll, leaving Green alone to dissect the 4-on-3 out of the short roll. Flanking Green and Curry with shooters like Klay Thompson and cutters like Andre Iguodala created havoc on the back end of these pick-and-roll possessions.
On the other side, Green was the centerpiece of some of the most dominant defenses during this span (consistently within the top 11 in defensive rating from 2015-19). His versatility at barely 6'6" allowed him to swap between guarding players like Damian Lillard to Anthony Davis. Even more impressive was his ability to protect the rim at an elite level, consistently ranking above the 87th percentile in shots defended at the rim and above the 82nd percentile on field goal percentage allowed ("Players Defensive Impact: Stats"). Green's Swiss army knife capabilities on defense allowed Golden State to flex between playing big with centers like Andrew Bogut or going small to unlock the "Death Lineup".
In 2015 and 2016, the Warriors' best five-man unit featured Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green. The "Death Lineup", as they were known, was the best five-man lineup in the league even before Kevin Durant arrived in the Bay. High-powered offense was married with elite-level defense in this unique lineup that no team in the NBA could match.
They were too quick and skilled offensively for teams with traditional, lumbering centers, but they had impactful defenders in Thompson, Iguodala, and Green. They utilized the three-point line as a tool to open up cutting and driving lanes on offense, but if teams got too eager to shut off the basket, Green or Iguodala would fling the ball to a sprinting Curry or Thompson for a three.
The combination of Curry's shooting and Green's defensive versatility fully unlocked the promise of small ball. With the Warriors' two All-Stars on the court together, the team outscored their opponents by an average of 16.5 points per 100 from 2015 to 2019. No player could match Curry's absurd shooting abilities and no defender could impact the game on the level of Green. Most importantly, the Warriors were not dependent on playing small. During their dynastic run, Golden State had traditional bigs like Andrew Bogut, Mareese Speights, and Zaza Pachulia. The "Death Lineup" was thrown out during opportune moments and torched defenses that could not match their mix of skill and defense. Even with the addition of Kevin Durant, Golden State's new "small" lineup featured a seven-foot shot creator.
Warriors Death Lineups by Total Team Minutes:
The era of small ball was almost a flash in the pan, but Golden State still has the two core pieces that made that lineup so effective. The problem is that they have become dependent on playing small while the rest of the league has grown in height and skill level.
Bigs with Skills ft. Jokić, Embiid, and Giannis
In the 2013 NBA Draft, Giannis Antetokounmpo was drafted 15th overall and was considered to be a project with major upside. A year later, the Philadelphia 76ers selected Joel Embiid with the third overall pick, and the Denver Nuggets took Nikola Jokić during a Taco Bell commercial at pick number 41. What do all of these players have in common? Not only have they been the last five MVPs but they also reestablished positional size in the NBA.
While Golden State was a shoo-in for the Finals during the late 2010s, these three future MVPs were slowly emerging as some of the most dominant players in basketball. By 2019, Giannis was the league MVP, Embiid averaged 27.5 points on the third-seeded Sixers, and Jokić had Denver slotted in second place out west behind the Warriors. The 2018-19 season marked the beginning of the end of the dominance of small ball. While the Warriors still made it to the Finals, they were met by Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors. Though Golden State did not go down without a fight, and injuries might have prevented a three-peat, Toronto won in six with their size and length.
Three of the next four NBA Champions utilized size and skill to bring home the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Yes, Golden State was the lone champion during this span that did not have positional size, but just as I granted them the injury card in 2019, they were fortunate to be matched with an undermanned Denver squad and Ja Morant missed time due to a knee injury in the 2022 playoffs. The more important note though is that with Giannis winning in 2021 and Jokić winning in 2023, teams have realized that bigs can still be championship centerpieces now that size has caught up with the skill of small ball teams. Here is where Milwaukee, Philly, and Denver have all ranked in advanced metrics since the 2019-20 season:
2020-24 Bucks:
2020: Eighth in OFFRTG, First in DEFRTG
2021: Fifth in OFFRTG, Ninth in DEFRTG
2022: Third in OFFRTG, 14th in DEFRTG
2023: 15th in OFFRTG, Fourth in DEFRTG
This Year: Third in OFFRTG, 19th in DEFRTG
2020-24 Sixers:
2020: 14th in OFFRTG, Eighth in DEFRTG
2021: 13th in OFFRTG, Second in DEFRTG
2022: 11th in OFFRTG, 12th in DEFRTG
2023: Third in OFFRTG, Eighth in DEFRTG
This Year: 2nd in OFFRTG, 2nd in DEFRTG
2020-24 Nuggets:
2020: Fifth in OFFRTG, 16th in DEFRTG
2021: Sixth in OFFRTG, 11th in DEFRTG
2022: Sixth in OFFRTG, 16th in DEFRTG
2023: Fifth in OFFRTG, 15th in DEFRTG
This Year: Eighth in OFFRTG, Ninth in DEFRTG
Both Embiid and Giannis have been foundational to some of the league's best defenses the past five years while Jokić has been the centerpiece of a consistent top ten offense. In an era of pace and space, having your best playmaker be nearly seven feet tall revolutionizes how your offense can work. Instead of having to rely on smaller guards to initiate actions, you can throw it into Embiid for a post-up opportunity, where his options are endless. He can score one-on-one (1.15 points per post-up), find the open cutter, or quickly reset into a dribble handoff with Tyrese Maxey for a three. If the halfcourt is more of a struggle for your team, don't worry, Giannis can grab and go (6.6 transition points, fifth in the NBA) while being flanked by one of the all-time best shooters Damian Lillard. If offense is your mainstay, you can use Jokić as a hub (9.3 assists, 45.1 AST%) who combines elite-level scoring and passing to generate quality looks over and over again.
With these three future Hall of Famers revolutionizing the game, more and more teams are opting for size in their personnel and draft decisions. A look at the Eastern Conference standings as of Dec. 21, 2023, will show that the top four teams have size across the board. Boston courts a starting five all standing above 6'4" with their tallest player reaching 7'2" in Kristaps Porzingis. Milwaukee and Philly trail closely and the young Orlando Magic have taken the league by storm led by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner (both 6'10").
Banchero was the first overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft, and he was followed by 7'1" Chet Holmgren and 6'11" Jabari Smith Jr. This past summer, 7'4"Victor Wembanyama broke the internet with his game-breaking physicals and arsenal of moves. The Spurs draft pick has been everything we had hoped for and it stands to reason that the bigger and more skilled players get, the more and more the era of small ball feels like a fever dream.
The fact is this, size has always been the trump card in basketball. When the Warriors nearly shattered this reality, it was because they had a combination of players that were a lot harder to replicate than teams like the Houston Rockets thought. Small ball is a tactical tool to be deployed in spurts. It is not an end all be all. With the rise of players like Embiid, Antetokounmpo, and Jokić, NBA offense has been seemingly fully actualized with the combination of positional size and skill. While positional fluidity is still very much in vogue, it does not negate the fact that if a team blends the roles of the traditional positions across all five players, a smaller lineup will have few answers for the game's elite playmakers. Having size is cool again, and Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo have "brought back" the power of the big man.
Stats/References
“Basketball Statistics & History of Every Team & NBA and WNBA Players.” Basketball, www.basketball-reference.com/. Accessed 21 Dec. 2023.
“Lineups Advanced: Stats.” Lineups Advanced | Stats | NBA.Com, www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?slug=advanced&Season=2014-15&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612744. Accessed 22 Dec. 2023.
“Players Defensive Impact: Stats.” Players Defensive Impact | Stats | NBA.Com, www.nba.com/stats/players/defensive-impact?Season=2016-17&dir=D&sort=DEF_RIM_FGA. Accessed 20 Dec. 2023.
“Teams Advanced: Stats.” Teams Advanced | Stats | NBA.Com, www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?Season=2019-20&dir=A&sort=OFF_RATING. Accessed 21 Dec. 2023.
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