With Chet Holmgren Out, The Thunder are Bringing Back Micro Ball
- Brennan Valladares
- Nov 15, 2024
- 6 min read
Chet Holmgren was well on his way to his first All-Star appearance and possible Defensive Player of the Year. Now, he'll be reevaluated in 8-10 weeks with a fractured hip. What does his injury mean for the Thunder?
97.3.
That was the Oklahoma City Thunder's defensive rating before Sunday's tilt with the Golden State Warriors. The lowest mark in the association by nearly 10 points per 100 (9.2 to be exact) and the lowest mark since the 2015-16 Spurs posted a 98.2 defensive rating for the whole year.
The backbone of this Thunder team so far this season has been defending its own goal, centered around one of the league's best paint patrollers in Chet Holmgren.
And midway through the opening period of Sunday's game, OKC looked to be on its way to cooling off one of the league's hottest offenses... until Holmgren had a midair collision with Andrew Wiggins.
The second-year big came down hard on his right hip and would miss the rest of the game. The Warriors went on to light up the Thunder 81-46 in the subsequent periods before a late fourth-quarter rally came up short, giving the Thunder its second loss of the season.
On Monday, it was reported that Holmgren would be out 8-10 weeks before a return-to-play protocol would be provided.
The Thunder, now without its top three centers, will have to navigate new waters in a deep western conference that is definitely not lacking front-court size. So what does Holmgren's injury mean for OKC, and how will things look without him?
A historic defense led by a one-of-a-kind player
Before we project what OKC will look like without Holmgren, let's take a moment to appreciate him anchoring one of the best defenses in recent memory. As stated earlier, before Holmgren went out, the Thunder had a 97.3 defensive rating. A look at his on/off defensive stats displays just how vital he was to OKC's historic start:
The top row is the Thunder's defense with Chet on the floor, showing that opponents were held to 98.6 points per 100 when he played (ranking in the 99th percentile according to the orange number on the far left). The bottom is the difference between when he played and when he was on the bench this year. Even with all of the elite defenders OKC boasts, Holmgren completed the picture, as the team was 7.5 points better with him.
Opponents shot worse with Holmgren protecting the paint and got to the free-throw line less frequently during his minutes. In fact, not only was Holmgren turning away 2.6 shots a night, but he was also forcing teams to shoot 10 percent worse at the rim when he was on the floor, per PBP Stats.
His timing and feel on some of his blocks are equatable to some of the best rim protectors in league history.
For instance, in this clip, Holmgren waits out Atlanta's Onyeka Okongwu's long strides before rising and denying:
Or how about here, where he snuffs out a lob pass before it even happens, creating one of the best highlights of the year so far:
Holmgren possesses a sixth sense of when someone is close to scoring at the rim. Once alerted, the metal doors come down and access is restricted around the basket. So much so that up to the point of his injury, Holmgren was tied for the lead in shots contested at the rim with 84. Of players that had contested at least 50 shots at the rim to that point, Holmgren was second in allowed field goal percentage (behind Victor Wembanyama) at 42.9.
That level of protection fully unleashed the hounds in OKC, as players like Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were empowered to press ballhandlers further from the basket. They could chase from behind knowing that Holmgren was awaiting in the paint ready to turn away layups.
In the above video, Lu Dort picks up Anfernee Simons (35.3 percent on pull-up threes last three seasons) 25 feet away from the basket, funneling him into Chet. After a failed attempt to draw a foul, Holmgren just erases the shot and sparks the Thunder break.
All the length on the perimeter for Oklahoma City was and has been boldly backed up by Holmgren's defensive presence. When you have a guy who can clean up any mistakes on the back end, you feel almost obligated to take more risks in the passing lanes or on the ball because he'll swat away even the best finishers in the game.
For the second straight season, OKC is among the best in deflections, steals and points off turnovers, making it one of the most disruptive defenses in the league. When you combine that with Holmgren's ability to hold it down in the paint, you get one of the best defenses of the last decade.
Micro-ball is back for good (for now)
Before the coronavirus shut down the world, former Rockets GM Daryl Morey decided to fully embrace the small ball era by going micro.
At the February trade deadline, Morey traded away James Harden's pick-and-roll partner, Clint Capela, in a four-team trade that brought back Robert Covington. Houston was all in on maximizing spacing and switchability in hopes of winning the West. Unfortunately, the league was just realizing that big men could still dominate and the Lakers would knock off the Rockets in the 2020 playoffs en route to their 17th title. Fast forward to 2024 and things are eerily similar to that Rockets team 445 miles north.
The Thunder's starting lineup in its first game without Holmgren didn't feature a player taller than 6-foot-6. Jalen Williams was in the center circle to do the jump ball against 7-foot Ivica Zubac, an almost comical matchup. But, on the very first play of the game, Williams poked the ball free on a Zubac post-up, sparking a transition layup on the other end. This would be a common theme throughout this game as Zubac (four turnovers) and the Clippers as a whole fell victim to OKC's defensive prowess.
By the middle of the third quarter, OKC led by 20 points, and by the end of it, the Thunder had forced 21 turnovers and scored 25 points off those takeaways. OKC tacked on another seven points off takeaways in the fourth and finished the game with 16 steals, 27 deflections and 23 forced turnovers.
In the following game against the Pelicans, the trend continued with the Thunder forcing 23 turnovers (16 steals and 26 deflections) and scoring 29 points off turnovers. Even without its backline help, the Thunder have continued (through two games at least) to be active and disruptive. And its micro ball variations (although in limited minutes) have been above the league average of 114.1 in defensive rating this year.
By necessity, Oklahoma City has been able to switch 1-5, keeping it out of rotation. Additionally, Williams has been unbelievable as a small ball center, holding opponents to 50 percent shooting at the rim (only six rim contests) while grabbing seven rebounds and averaging a block and two steals.
And sure, the Thunder have given up 116 points per 100 over the last three games (most of that damage done by the Warriors and Clippers), but a bottom 20 defense isn't surprising when a team loses one of the most impactful defenders in the game. OKC is coming off its third game of holding an opponent to under 90 points and what it may be giving up in size, it's trading in for on-ball creation.
Not that the team lacked that with Holmgren, but with Williams at center, the Thunder have a natural handler with the ball nearly every time down the floor, something those 2020 Rockets did not have the luxury of. So, they may get killed on the glass or punished in the paint (not the case so far), but for a team that has not been nearly as efficient offensively as it was last season, this could be a time when that starts to perk up (currently ninth in offensive rating).
Why wouldn't it?
They were the best three-point shooting team last year by percentage and outside of Caruso, that spacing and efficiency will stay intact. Couple that with the Thunder also being one of the best driving teams in all of basketball - fueled by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - and that's a recipe to generate some great looks either at the rim or from beyond the arc.
When you combine this team's offensive juice with its frenetic style of defense, it may not be all doom and gloom with Holmgren out. If anything, there's a real chance that the sheer depth of this OKC roster truly comes to light, and when both Hartenstein and Holmgren return, there will be minimal answers this team doesn't have come playoff time.
Comments