Got to Move to Improve: Four Teams That Could Make Trades Ahead of The Deadline
- Brennan Valladares
- Jan 19, 2024
- 6 min read
Trades are crucial to getting over the hump or to saving a team's season. What teams will make that move before the deadline?
As the Christmas and New Year celebrations have wound down, the NBA has transitioned into trade season. With the Feb. 8 deadline approaching, teams across the association could be active in negotiations. Some teams are looking to acquire a piece to take them over the top, while others are trying to salvage their season. In particular, I believe four teams could be heavily engaged in trade talks to jump into title contention or earn a playoff spot.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
Strengths: Presumable MVP in Joel Embiid, Elite co-star in Tyrese Maxey, Revamped offense
Weaknesses: Ball handling, Perimeter defense
Trade: PHI acquires Alex Caruso; CHI acquires Robert Covington, 2026 1st (least favorable of OKC, HOU, or LAC), 2028 1st (LAC, unprotected)
Alex Caruso's value heading into the trade deadline has skyrocketed due to his plug-and-play nature and his salary. He is under contract through 2025 and will make $9.46 million this year and $9.89 million next season. A workable salary accompanied by All-Defensive talent can vault Philadelphia into championship contention.
Currently, the Sixers lack the "stopper" necessary to get through the playoffs when matched up against players like Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum, and Damian Lillard (and that's just the East). Caruso offers the flexibility and ability to guard Giannis Antetokounmpo and Dame during a game, making him one of the best defenders in basketball. With Caruso on the floor, the Bulls have been about 3.8 points better on defense, according to pbpstats.com. Caruso's instincts, lateral quickness, and strength would offer Philly what Jrue Holiday was to Brook Lopez: an elite screen navigator keeping the rim protector near the basket.
As we saw in last year's playoffs against Boston, when Embiid was forced to extend beyond the three-point line, Jayson Tatum exploited the big man's lack of quickness to generate open looks. With Caruso, Embiid could remain in a drop, and Caruso would funnel daring ball handlers into the swatting arms of Embiid.
Offensively, the Bulls' guard has a connective game that would complement Philly's cutting and motion-style system. He keeps the ball moving and has quick processing skills when reading the defense:
Caruso is also connecting on 42.6% of his catch-and-shoot threes and 45.6% of his wide-open attempts (it is important to note that of the 183 players to attempt at least 100 threes, he is near the bottom of that list at 124).
Overall, Caruso is a versatile defender who provides the Sixers with Joel Embiid's running mate on that side of the ball. On the attack, the Sixers wouldn't have to adapt to Caruso. Instead, Caruso's transposable skills on both sides of the ball would fit perfectly in the 76ers' ecosystem.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Strengths: Multiple playmakers, Positional size, Versatility defensively
Weaknesses: Frontcourt depth, Rebounding
Trade: OKC acquires Wendell Carter Jr.; ORL acquires Dāvis Bertāns and 2025 1st (unprotected)
The Thunder are currently slotted second out west and are one of three teams ranking in the top six for both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is due to their elite skill level at each position, namely Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. Gilgeous-Alexander is the engine of their potent offense, while Holmgren is the anchor of their stonewall defense. So why would OKC want to make a trade with all of the success it is having? They lack an interior presence to take on the Jokić's and Embiid's.
Holmgren is already one of the best rim protectors in all of basketball, but his lack of strength and weight allow him to be punished underneath the basket. Trading for Wendell Carter Jr. - a 6'10", 270-pound center - would sure up the Thunder's rebounding (28th in rebounds per game and allowing the seventh most offensive rebounds to opposition) and move Holmgren to the role of roamer. Carter would draw the assignments of larger centers, while Holmgren would guard the opposition's weakest shooter waiting to swat away layup attempts.
Carter Jr. has been excellent since he got traded to the Magic back in 2021. He is an elite defensive rebounder (91st percentile in defensive rebound percentage in 2023) and has shown flashes of extending beyond the arc, hitting 38% of his wide-open threes during his tenure with the Magic. Similar to Caruso, Carter Jr.'s playmaking could be an added benefit of making this trade. Dribble handoffs are increasingly becoming staples of the league's best offenses and Carter Jr. could diversify the Thunder's offense by serving as a hub.
Orlando has had success with Goga Bitadze starting in place of Carter Jr., who has missed 36 games this season due to injuries. It seems likely the Magic would be open to trades for the big man out of Duke, seeing that they are loaded in the front court. Wendell Carter Jr. would round off the Thunder's size needs and bring in another complementary playmaker to an already elite team.
3 AND 4. Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks
GSW Strengths: Steph Curry, Developing youth
ATL Strengths: Efficient offense, Promising young core
GSW Weaknesses: Shot creation, Positional size, Age
ATL Weaknesses: Defense, Lack of wing production
Trade: GSW acquires Dejounte Murray, Clint Capella, and Wesley Matthews; ATL acquires Klay Thompson and Jonathan Kuminga, 2027 and 2028 1st (unprotected)
If the season were to end today, the Hawks would be in danger of falling out of the play-in while the Warriors would already be on the outside looking in. It doesn't seem likely that this trade would "fix" each team's seasons, but it could at least make both sides more competitive.
For the Warriors, this year can be summed up by one name: Stephen Curry. The All-NBA guard has 18 of Golden State's top 25 point outputs for the season. As I wrote about before, the Warriors' motion and high-pace offense is no longer light years ahead of the league. As the NBA's size has caught up with the skill the Warriors seemed to have gatekept for so long, Golden State is too small to match up with the best teams in the league. Also, with the decline in play of some of their key players like Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, Golden State lacks the consistent backup Curry needs on a night-to-night basis.
By trading for Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela, the Warriors would add another scorer/defender and buff their interior defense. Murray has proven to be an All-Defensive guard who can average 20, while Capela is one of the league's top paint defenders, currently ranking in the 83rd percentile in defended rim field goal percentage.
Dejounte would also add the element of attack the Warriors were hoping for when trading for Chris Paul; mid-range scoring. Murray currently ranks in the 90th percentile in mid-range efficiency and is among the league leaders in pull-up efficiency. He is also an effective pick-and-roll ball handler, opening the door for the Warriors to add a wrinkle to their motion-heavy offense. But, even with his in-between scoring, Murray has value away from the ball, netting 38% of his catch-and-shoot threes this season.
On the other side of this transaction, the Hawks would receive a veteran guard in Klay Thompson, who just so happens to be one of the best three-point shooters of all time. The Murray and Young combo just didn't seem to work, maybe due to both players being better with the ball in their hands. Thompson, on the other hand, is among the best off-ball players the game has ever seen and would provide Trae with a reliable outlet out of screen and roll situations. Better yet, Thompson is in the final year of his $190 million contract, becoming an unrestricted free agent after this season. If the pairing in Atlanta fails, the Hawks have no obligation to sign him back.
The second player coming into Atlanta, Jonathan Kuminga, has been limited in his role in Golden State, despite being the supposed bridge between the old and new Warriors. Kuminga's draft mate, Jalen Johnson, is having a career year playing alongside Trae Young, and it would seem logical that Kuminga could benefit from playing a similar role. Both players are big wings with elite athleticism. Johnson is the better shooter, but Kuminga is the better finisher with a 70.9 rim field goal percentage. Head coach Quinn Snyder would be able to maximize Kuminga's cutting and vertical spacing alongside the three-point spacing provided by Thompson and Johnson. For instance, replacing Curry in the play below with Young would more than likely result in a similar outcome. Young is a dangerous pull-up three-point shooter (36.8%/6.7 3PA), demanding a hard hedge or double, similar to Curry. This opens up the short roll for Kuminga to attack space and make a play.
While it is highly unlikely that the Warriors trade Klay Thompson at the deadline, it would make a lot of sense seeing that Steph Curry is dragging this team to right outside of the play-in. Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela would correct Golden State's two most glaring deficiencies (size and shot creation) while also mixing up their offensive game plan. For Atlanta, this trade has the potential to make them competitive to stay in the playoff hunt. If they fall short, they can enter a new phase with a young, dynamic core around their superstar Trae Young.
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